天地争霸美猴王

美债危机不足为惧？小摩：美股年末有望轮动上涨 看好优质成长与半导体_我的网站

一 |     HONOLULU -- All of West Maui except for burned-out sections of historic Lahaina will reopen to tourism on Nov. 1 following the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than century, the mayor of Maui County said Monday. Mayor Richard Bissen said he made the move after talking about it with his Lahaina advisory team, the Red Cross and other partners.West Maui has about 11,000 hotel rooms, or about half of Maui's total. Travelers evacuated those hotels after the Aug. 8 fire raged through Lahaina town, killing at least 99 people and destroying more than 2,000 buildings. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green last month declared West Maui would officially reopen to tourism on Oct. 8 to bring back badly needed jobs and help the economy recover. Bissen modified the governor’s declaration with a phased plan, allowing a small section on the northern edge of West Maui to open first with the rest to follow at an undetermined date. The community has had an impassioned debate about when to welcome travelers back to the disaster-stricken region. Some residents drafted a petition opposing the return of tourists, saying the community wasn't ready. Bissen said Monday that workers are ready to return to their jobs while acknowledging “this isn’t for everyone.”Those who aren’t prepared to go back to work on Nov. 1 should talk to their employers and “continue to seek the help and attention that they need,” Bissen said at a news conference in Lahaina that was livestreamed online.The mayor said many residents are also concerned about not having child care. He said the county’s partners are working on that issue. Residents who have been staying in West Maui hotels and other short-term accommodations after losing their homes in the fire won't lose their lodging, the mayor said.“We’re assured by the Red Cross that their housing will not be in jeopardy,” Bissen said. The mayor said the reopening schedule was voluntary and said some properties have already reopened on their own.。    　　美东时间周一，摩根大通在研报中表示，对今年剩余时间的股市依旧维持乐观，但认为上涨将来自板块轮动，而非普涨式的猛烈拉升。　　看好美股年内走势　　小摩策略师法比奥·巴西（Fabio Bassi）在报告中写道：“对于股票市场，我们对年底前行情保持建设性看法，预计市场缓步上行，行情主线是板块轮动，而非全面普涨。”　　该行表示，近期半导体板块反弹，代表市场风险偏好出现战术性修复；而在美联储政策保持耐心、抑制市场波动的背景下，市场仓位水平与板块分化程度将主导下一阶段行情。

二 | 　　总体而言，摩根大通看好优质成长股与超大规模云厂商；同时，经过近期估值重定价之后，半导体板块同样具备吸引力。　　摩根大通补充称，如果在美国通胀切实回落的“金发姑娘”良性经济环境下，美联储维持利率按兵不动，市场涨势有望进一步扩散。　　近期美债波动反映资本需求增多　　摩根大通还讨论了近期美债市场的波动。小摩指出，当前大背景是长端美债遭到猛烈抛售，发达经济体收益率曲线再度陡峭化。　　而这背后的驱动因素，一方面来自供给层面的挤出效应：超大规模云厂商的资本开支，与主权债券发行争夺市场资金；另一方面，市场对AI商业化落地的信心提升，推高投资的实际回报水平。　　对风险资产至关重要的一点是，小摩并不把这一轮债市变动解读为政策失误的信号。研报写道：“长端收益率走高、收益率曲线陡峭化，更多反映出资本需求与投资机会增多，而非市场担忧政策出错。”　　摩根大通同时表示，在其基准情景下，期限溢价仅会出现小幅上行，因此本轮变化不会触发大范围风险资产抛售。　　摩根大通还提到，美国财政部扩大10年期、30年期美债回购规模，释放出政策层面对长端收益率上行的不安情绪；并且该行预计，本周的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会也难以厘清市场对美联储政策反应机制的争论。（文章来源：财联社）。

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